That's what tomorrow is shaping up to be: a landslide.I know, I know... don't jinx it.
I don't believe in jinxes.
I do believe in organization. I believe in message discipline. I believe in voter turnout. I believe in tens of thousands turning out for rallies for change. I believe in polls that underrepresent first-time voters and voters who no longer have landlines. And, I believe in the electoral college tilting inexorably in favor of Barack Obama and the states for Democrats generally.
So, put your money where your mouth is. Predictions?
Popular vote: Obama - 54%; McCain - 46%.
Electoral college?
Obama: 352 (ME, VT, NH, NY, MA, RI, DE, CT, MD, NJ, DC, PA, MI, OH, VA, IL, FL, WI, IA, MN, MT, CO, NM, NV, CA, OR, WA, HI).
McCain: 186 (AK, ID, UT, WY, SD, ND, AZ, NE, MO, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, NC, TN, KY, WV, SC, IN).
Dems end up with 58 seats in the Senate (gain of 9 seats); 259 seats in the House (gain of 26 seats).
Oh, and one last prediction: The first state called for Obama after the polls close? Vermont... at 7:04 p.m. EST.
You heard it here first. Somebody will be eating crow on Wednesday.
See how your predictions stack up against the pros and pundits at the Washington Post. Just click here and you can check out all their numbers on the key races tonight. Interestingly my prediction on the electoral college math matches up most closely with Ed Rollins (big GOP advisor) and Eleanor Clift (liberal-lefty from Newsweek and McLaughlin Group). My Senate/House picks coincided with Juan Williams of NPR and Bill Maher of whatever it is he does (HBO? Smarminess?). Hmmm. What does it all mean?!
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2 comments:
Popular vote: Obama 52%; McCain 48% I'm not as optimistic as you but that might be because I live 15 minutes from Palin and every business in Wasilla has a "Go Sarah!" sign.
Electoral college: ... let me consult the CNN map. Hang on...
Obama: 355 (ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, PA, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VA, NC, FL, MI, WI, IN, IL, MO, IA, MN, CO, NM, WA, OR, NV, CA, HI)
McCain: 183 (OH, WV, KY, TN, SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, AR, OK, TX, KS, NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, AK)
I have no idea re: senate and house.
Agree with you that the first state called for Obama will be the beautiful state of Vermont but I put it at 7:26.
I further predict Alaska will be called for Palin, I mean, McCain 20 minutes after the polls open at 7:20 a.m. Alaska time.
I'm too lazy to do the electoral math, but I'm going with all of Chris' states plus Georgia and Missouri.
Senate: 58 dems (if you count Leiberman - that backstabber). I actually think Coleman will hang on by his fingernails, but if god is in His heaven, Franken will take it, getting us to 58. Turnout in Oregon is uncharacteristically low thus far, but dem returns are far outpacing republicans, so that looks good for Merkley.
Incidentally, I think your mule is a donkey, and I'm curious what a potato pan is exactly...
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